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Marketing Insights

Attribution Is Broken — Here's How to Think About It Anyway

No attribution model is fully accurate. That doesn't mean attribution is useless — it means you have to know what each model is lying about.

July 10, 20264 min read

Every Model Has a Bias

Last-click attribution gives all the credit to whatever touchpoint happened right before a conversion, which tends to over-reward channels like branded search that catch people who were already decided. First-click does the opposite, over-crediting the very first exposure and ignoring everything that closed the deal. Multi-touch models split the difference, but the split is still a modeling choice, not a measured fact.

Incrementality Testing as a Reality Check

Incrementality testing — deliberately holding a channel back from a segment and comparing results — gets closer to a real answer for a specific question, but it's slower, more disruptive, and impractical to run on everything at once. It's better thought of as a periodic check on your model's assumptions than a replacement for day-to-day attribution reporting.

Consistency Matters More Than Precision

In practice, the most useful approach is picking one attribution model, understanding clearly what it tends to over- or under-credit, and staying consistent with it so that trends over time remain comparable — even if the absolute numbers from any single model wouldn't survive close scrutiny on their own.

Key Takeaways

  • Every attribution model over- or under-credits something — know which.
  • Incrementality testing is a periodic check, not a daily replacement.
  • Consistency in your chosen model matters more than any single model being 'right.'

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